Since 2011, home teams in the divisional around are 21-7 straight up, meaning on average you can expect three of the four teams that have the bye and get to play at home to advance to the conference title games. But home teams come nowhere near as close to covering the spread in the divisional round.Over that same time period, home teams are just 12-16 against the spread in the divisional round. And that's not a recent development; you have to go back to 2002 and earlier to find a time when you could blindly bet the home team against the spread in the divisional Charlie Coyle Jersey round under the current format of six teams getting into the playoffs in each conference. Since 2003, home teams are just 24-36 ATS in the divisional round, covering just 40 percent of the time.The interesting thing is what happens when you break down the point-spread ranges of the home team in those games to see what type of teams tend to cover.SpreadATSCover %< -48-753%-4 to -61-910%-6.54-0100%-7 to -95-1624%> -96-460%Lump the weirdne s going on at -6.5 with the ranges on either side, and favorites of 4-9 points are just 10-25 against the spread since 2003. That's a cover rate of just 28.5 percent. Why does this matter? Because the way the lines are shaping up this weekend, we could have all four games close in this point-spread range. The one with seemingly the best chance to escape is New England, who could get down to -3.5 if people keep piling on the . But I need to point this out: that 8-7 ATS record above included no home teams that were favored by 3.5 points, so it's just as po sible a 3.5-point favorite would slot into the 10-25 ATS trend of 4-9 point favorites as the other direction. More on the NFL If you want to know which sides I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. Let's get to it. My picks At SportsLine, , including going 4-0 on Wild Card Weekend. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year. However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week, which has been very profitable during the season. at (-5.5)Home-field advantage: 3 points Power rating line: Chiefs -4.5 Opening line: Chiefs -5 INDKC Record vs. spread 9-7-19-6-1 Yards per play differential 0.30.9 Points per drive offense rank 61 Jared Spurgeon Jersey Points per drive defense rank 1128 Weighted DVOA 28.432.3 Pa s offense DVOA rank 101 Pa s defense DVOA rank 2012 Run offense DVOA rank 134 Run defense DVOA rank 432Andy Reid used to be unbeatable after a bye: He won 16 straight games after a bye in the regular season or playoffs to start his coaching career with the , going 12-4 against the spread in that stretch. In his final season in Philadelphia, Reid finally lost his first game after a bye, falling to the at home 30-17 as three-point favorites. Since coming to Kansas City, the schedule-makers have put the Chiefs on the road coming out of the bye every year, where Reid is Zach Parise Jersey 4-2 straight up and 3-3 ATS. His Chiefs also lost at home two years ago in the divisional round against the as 2.5-point favorites off the bye. So the le son is, don't just a sume Reid has some bye magic in store for the Colts on Saturday. He'll have the best offense on the field but also the worst defense, with the Chiefs ranking dead last in DVOA against the run during the regular season and now facing a Colts attack that just rolled up 200 rushing yards against DVOA's best rush defense. And if that's not enough, the pa sing game is also led by one of the best QBs in the league in .But while the Colts have been playing well on defense, they haven't faced an attack anywhere near the quality of the Chiefs. Aside from their wins against in the second half of the season and playoffs, here are the QBs that have started against the Colts in their 10-1 streak: , , , (left with injury), , , , , . is going to be a different test altogether. at (-7)Home-field advantage: 2.5 points Power rating line: Rams -5.5 Opening line: Rams -7 DALLAR Record vs. spread 9-87-8-1 Yards per play differential 0.00.4 Points per drive offense rank 193 Points per drive defense rank 1521 Weighted DVOA -1.018.9 Pa s offense DVOA rank 265 Pa s defense DVOA rank 169 Run offense DVOA rank 191 Run defense DVOA rank 528Of the four coaches playing after a bye this weekend, Sean McVay is obviously the one with the least experience, having just taken over the Rams in 2017. But he managed to win and cover both times after a bye in the regular season with both games on the road. Last year the Rams were 6.5-point favorites over the Falcons in the wild-card round but lost outright.The Cowboys should look to pull off the upset by pounding the ball on the ground against one of the worst rush defenses in Jason Zucker Jersey the league, one that allowed a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry. Aside from their rush defense, the Rams are an elite team in all phases of the game, so they'll pose a huge test for a Cowboys defense that just benefited from the playing to their defensive strength for 60 minutes, for some reason.As good as the Cowboys defense has played this year, asking them to dominate on the road might be too tough to expect. Five of the seven times they gave up at least 350 yards of offense came on the road. On the other side, the Rams totaled more than 400 yards in seven of their eight home games, including going over 500 against two good defenses ( , Chargers). If they can turn this game into a shootout, the Cowboys pa sing attack will need to find another gear to keep up. Chargers at (-4)Home-field advantage: 3.5 points Power Mikko Koivu Jersey rating line: Patriots -4 Opening line: Patriots -4.5 LACNE Record vs. spread 10-79-7 Yards per play differential 0.9 0.2 Points per drive offense rank 58 Points per drive defense rank 87 Weighted DVOA 21.419.3 Pa s offense DVOA rank 24 Pa s defense DVOA rank 1014 Run offense DVOA rank 69 Run defense DVOA rank 1019Bill Belichick has ample experience playing at home on divisional weekend after a bye, and his Patriots are 11-1 straight up and 7-4-1 ATS in such a situation, covering six of the last seven years. He's 14-5 straight up in the regular season after a bye week but just 10-8-1 ATS in that stretch. A little strangely, most of his non-covers in the regular season have come in Foxborough (1-6-1 ATS).These two teams come into this game with similar DVOA profiles, but the Chargers do everything just a l
