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How 2019 Patriots stack up against other

  • john yun
    • 431 posts
    April 8, 2023 10:43 AM EDT

    Are the the best defense of all time? We're constantly floating down a lazy river of hyperbole in 2019, but it's a fair question in the wake of Bill Belichick's smothering secondary creating apparitions before eyes on Monday night. I'm intrigued by the idea of this defense being the greatest ever. You can. So let's look at how they compare to other great historical defenses. It doesn't fit the typical narrative -- most legendary defensive squads pop up out of nowhere. They're not born out of a contrarian and analytical approach to roster building on the tail end (?) of the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. The Pats and Belichick have been great for 20 years. New England's produced very good defenses before. Rarely are the Patriots the best defense in football, but Belichick's units on that side of the ball typically coalesce towards the end of the year to help make a run. Now we're seeing the Patriots jump out to an incredible start, so it begs the question: how do the 2019 Patriots compare to other historically great defenses? New England is 7-0 and has absolutely waxed everyone in their path, registering a plus-175 point differential over the first seven weeks. That's an average margin of victory of 25 points. But the margin the Pats are winning by doesn't even really give the defense its full credit. The Patriots defense -- not the Patriots, but just the Patriots defense -- has a positive point differential. New England's defense has given up 18 points on three total touchdowns and has scored 20 points on three touchdowns Jose Ramirez Jersey and a safety. You can go ahead and kick in 12 more points on blocked punt TDs if you'd like. It's an inconceivable concept nearly halfway into the season. People like to complain about the schedule the Patriots have faced, and it might be a fair complaint. But it's stunning to look at the production from the quarterbacks the Pats have faced so far.Quarterbacks vs. Patriots CompAttComp %YardsYds/GameYds/AttTDINT 12324250.8 1,209 172.7 5.0 118 The competition here is not the ' David Justice Jersey 27 Yankees of quarterbacks -- , Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen, , Josh Allen/Matt Barkley, , and Sam Darnold -- but over a period of seven games the Patriots have basically turned a large group of quarterbacks a le s efficient Joey Harrington. Perhaps you prefer rookie year JaMarcus Ru sell instead? Rookie year do anything for you? These are the statistical comps for the horrific Frankenstein that is the Pats opponents through seven games.Comparing Pats D to disastrous QB seasonsPlayerComp %Yds/GameYds/AttTD %INT % 2019 Pats Opponents 50.8 172.7 5.0 0.4% 7.4% 2011 Blaine Gabbert 50.9 147.6 5.4 2.9% 2.7% 2009 JaMarcus Ru sell 48.8 107.3 4.5 1.2% 4.5% 2002 Joey Harrington 50.1 163.9 5.4 2.8% 3.7% Consider how terrible these quarterbacks were in their rookie seasons and just consider that's what the Patriots have turned a group of quarterbacks -- one Hall of Famer, another famous journeyman veteran, a few first-round picks and couple backups -- into so far this season. Clearly, this is a great defense, even against a le ser level of competition. So how do the Patriots look when we start to compare them against other great defenses of recent years? I took several pretty common metrics -- points allowed per game, yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play, turnovers and defensive DVOA rating via Football Outsiders -- and applied them to several historical defenses. For this particular exercise, the 2019 Patriots are being compared to the 2013 (Legion of Boom), 2008 (an underrated great defense, shoutout to ), 2002 (Jon Gruden's title team), 2000 (Brian Billick's title team) and 1985 (the gold standard). This is not an end-all/be-all list of great defenses. But it's a fairly Bob Uecker Jersey common collection of teams considered to be some of the best defenses of all time. The goal is more to see where the Patriots -- who, reminder, have only played seven games -- stack up against these teams in terms of statistical production. It is very impre sive. Pats D vs. other historically great defenses Team Pts/Game Yds/Game Yds/Play TO/Game DVOA 2019 Patriots 6.9 223.1 4.0 3.1 -49.7 2013 Seahawks 14.4 273.6 4.4 2.4 -25.9 2008 Steelers 13.9 237.2 3.9 1.8 -29.0 2002 Buccaneers 12.3 252.8 4.2 2.4 -31.8 2000 Ravens 10.3 247.9 4.3 3.1 -23.8 1985 Bears 12.4 258.4 4.4 3.4 N/A So, the Patriots are the greatest defense of all time then, right? Maybe! They beat out everyone in terms of points per game allowed, yards per game allowed and yards per play allowed. Historically, they are one of the greatest defenses DVOA has ever measured. But the schedule question still lingers. Plus, I was curious as to how some of these great defenses looked seven games into their respective seasons, so I went back and examined those teams through seven games. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison, because we're talking about different eras and different schedules. The '85 Bears, for instance, played against Bud Grant, Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh in their first seven games. The Pats drew Adam Gase twice. Slight difference. But I was curious how these teams looked through the early portion of the schedule. Oftentimes, great defenses turn it on as the season moves along. In this instance I also wanted to know what kind of opponents these teams played through the first seven weeks of the Deion Sanders Jersey season. To do that, I took the Patriots' opponents winning percentage for the first seven weeks of the season and also looked at the seven opponents' winning percentage for the full year of those other defenses. Just how easy was the Patriots draw? No one played a difficult schedule. But certainly the Patriots strength of schedule stands out. Pats D vs. other top defenses: First seven games Team Pts/Game Yds/Game Yds/Play Turnovers Opp. Winning % 2019 Patriots 6.9 223.1 4.0 22 .273 2013 Seahawks 16.6 282.1 4.8 19 .429 2008 Steelers 15.7 236 4.0 10 .482 2002 Buccaneers 10.9 253.3 4.0 15 .496 2000 Ravens 10.7 260 4.6 22 .438 1985 Bears 11.9 301.3 5.4 24 .446This cuts both ways. Because we're using a smaller sample size, the Patriots are going to be playing worse teams. For instance, the Pats have played the twice in seven weeks. They stomped the Jets both times, so the Jets could be, at best, 4-2. They're 1-5, obviously, and that counts twice towards the Patriots strength of schedule early on. Clearly, however, there is a Hank Aaron Jersey stark difference in terms of early competition faced by some of these great defenses. Part of me wonders if it's not simply a historical trend. Like in baseball,